Portfolios
Three strategies.
One framework.
Each portfolio runs a different lens — AI-curated picks, systematic ETF momentum, and high-conviction small caps. All three share the same discipline: every position has a written thesis, every closed position gets reviewed honestly, every miss is documented.
Portfolio 01
Nova Fund
AI-curated. Quality × discount × smart-money. Thirteen institutional indicators, one score.
Nova Fund is a live, AI-curated portfolio managed inside Nova — the trading copilot we built for our own desk. Every position is selected through the same lens applied everywhere on this site: quality × discount × smart-money confirmation, condensed into a single 0–100 Nova Score across thirteen institutional layers.
Thirteen indicators. Five score zones — Selling, Distribution, Neutral, Accumulation, Buying. Layers without data abstain: they're skipped from the blend, not averaged toward 50. A confluence bonus fires when multiple smart-money layers read bullish on the same name. Every pick is paired with a written thesis.
Cash flows are managed deterministically. Dividends are reinvested automatically at the next ex-date close (DRIP). The sector-aware allocator prevents concentration into any one theme. Positions are reviewed in the weekly memo with reasoning published — every entry, every exit, every miss.
Framework
Quality × Discount × Smart-money
Score
0–100 · 13 layers · 5 zones
Cadence
Weekly memo · daily rebalance
Cash flows
DRIP · sector-aware sizing
How it works
From watchlist to position.
- 01
Universe scan
Every name on the watchlist gets scored daily across thirteen institutional layers — quality, discount, smart-money, context.
- 02
Zone gating
Picks come from Accumulation (60–70) and Buying (70–100) zones only. Selling and Distribution names are filtered out.
- 03
Confluence bonus
Score boost when two or more smart-money layers (insider / congress / 13F / flow) all read bullish on the same name.
- 04
Sector-aware sizing
Allocator caps any single sector to prevent the portfolio from concentrating into one theme.
- 05
Entry + thesis
Every position is paired with a written thesis. Reasoning is published in the weekly memo.
- 06
Exit
Score drift below threshold triggers re-evaluation. Closed positions get reviewed honestly — including losers.
Portfolio 02
ETF Momentum
Markets reward discipline. No predictions, no gut calls, no headlines.
The ETF Momentum portfolio runs on one principle: markets reward discipline. A systematic, rules-based process screens the strongest names out of 1,000+ liquid US-listed ETFs across equities, bonds, commodities, and alternative asset classes.
Every month, each ETF is ranked on a blend of trend, momentum, volatility, and risk-adjusted return. The portfolio tilts toward genuine leadership and avoids names stuck in prolonged downtrends.
The top 10 ETFs are pulled from the top-100 ranked list. Positions are equally weighted at 10% of account value — diversified, with each winner free to drive performance. Correlation filters drop ETFs that move in lockstep, which would create hidden concentration. Result: exposure to several distinct market themes at once.
Rebalance is monthly, on the first trading day. Responsive enough to react when leadership rotates, slow enough to avoid churn. Average hold runs two to five months. When nothing in the universe clears the system's threshold, cash is the position. Discipline above exposure.
Dividends are retained and reinvested at the next rebalance. Luke contributes $1,000/month to the strategy — DCA layered on top of momentum. The strategy adapts to whatever cycle the market is in: compound over time, avoid overtrading, overconcentration, and fad-chasing.
Universe
1,000+ US-listed ETFs
Holdings
10 ETFs · equal-weight
Rebalance
Monthly · 1st trading day
Hold period
2–5 months avg
Asset classes
Equities · bonds · commodities · alts
Risk control
Cash position when threshold not met
Correlation
Lockstep filter prevents concentration
DCA layer
$1,000/mo contribution
The process
Six steps. Once a month.
- 01
Universe scan
1,000+ liquid US-listed ETFs across equities, bonds, commodities, and alternative asset classes.
- 02
Multi-factor ranking
Each ETF ranked on a blend of trend, momentum, volatility, and risk-adjusted return.
- 03
Top-100 filter
Narrow to genuine leadership candidates. Names stuck in prolonged downtrends are dropped.
- 04
Correlation gate
Filter out ETFs that move in lockstep with each other to avoid hidden concentration.
- 05
Top-10 selection
Equal-weighted at 10% of account value. Diversified, but each winner is free to drive performance.
- 06
Monthly rebalance
First trading day of the month. Cut weakness, hold winners. When nothing clears the threshold, cash is the position.
Portfolio 03
Stock Picks
High-growth small caps. Disciplined process. Real money. Public ledger.
The Stock Picks portfolio is the high-conviction lane. High-growth small caps with outlier potential — a high-risk, high-reward strategy executed with the same discipline as everything else: documented thesis, custom trailing stop, real money on the line.
Picks come through a five-step funnel. Top-down macro scan identifies the strongest markets and themes. A custom screen — proprietary models pulling from 4,300+ instruments across NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ — narrows that to a shortlist. Deep fundamental research trims further: financials, growth, valuation, qualified analyst takes. Technical and indicator analysis identifies the optimal entry timing. The final cut considers portfolio fit and current sector exposure. One pick per week.
The portfolio runs 30–40 positions on average — fewer during downturns, more during strength. Average hold is around four months but ranges from two weeks to two years. Losers cut fast on a custom trailing stop (price closes below, sell alert issued, exit next day). Winners run.
Returns follow a trend-following distribution: many small outcomes, a few big winners that drive the bulk of returns. A 30–40% drawdown should be expected at some point over 10 years — that's normal. The portfolio is built to withstand prolonged downturns through diversification across asset classes, geographies (via ADRs), and by only investing in what's growing. Short-term volatility is the price paid for long-term outperformance.
Reinvestment engine: on the first trading day of each month, proceeds from closed positions and dividends are redistributed equally across all open picks. Compounding by design. Minimum 10 open positions to prevent over-concentration. Minimum 5% cash reserve to avoid churn from tiny reinvestments.
The Public Challenge
$500 to $1M.
A 10-year mission to grow a real-money portfolio from $500 to $1,000,000 — full transparency, weekly picks, every trade documented. Luke contributes $550/week, increasing 10% every year.
-
$550
/wk invested
-
10y
Jun 2024 → Jun 2034
-
~17.8%
target CAGR
Universe
4,300+ NYSE / AMEX / NASDAQ
Holdings
30–40 positions
Hold period
~4mo avg · 2 weeks – 2 years
Exit
Custom trailing stop
Style
High-growth small caps
Reinvestment
Monthly · equal-weight redistribution
Min positions
10 open · 5% cash reserve
Filters
$25M cap · $2 share · long only
How picks are chosen
Five-step funnel.
- 01
Top-down macro scan
Identify the strongest markets, sectors, and themes driving current conditions.
- 02
Custom screening
Proprietary screens pull from 4,300+ instruments across NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. Output: a tight shortlist.
- 03
Deep fundamental research
Financials, growth, valuation, and qualified analyst takes. Trim the shortlist to candidates that hold up.
- 04
Technical & indicator timing
Custom fundamental and technical indicators identify the optimal entry timing.
- 05
Portfolio fit + final pick
Sector exposure and risk balance considered. One pick per week makes the cut.
What to expect
Trend-following distribution.
Many small outcomes. A few big winners that drive the bulk of returns. The tail is where the strategy actually compounds.
-
20–40%
Small to moderate losses
Cut quickly. Trailing stop fires.
-
20–40%
Small to moderate wins
Consistent, smaller returns.
-
40–100%
Big winners
The real bulk drivers.
-
100%+
Outliers
Where the strategy actually compounds.
The weekly cycle
From entry to exit.
-
Monday
Luke buys
$550 invested in a real-money account at a random time. Entry price posted to open positions.
-
1st of month
Performance report
Monthly update on portfolio performance, position commentary, and market outlook.
-
When triggered
Exit alerts
Sell signal posted the day before exit. Custom trailing stop indicator determines exits.
Drawdowns are part of the plan
A 30–40% drawdown should be expected at some point over a 10-year horizon — that's normal. The portfolio is built to withstand prolonged downturns through diversification across asset classes, geographies, and by only investing in what's growing. Short-term volatility is the price paid for long-term outperformance.
Want them all?
Red Pill includes Nova Fund, ETF Momentum, and Stock Picks — auto-tracked inside the members area, with weekly memos and full thesis on every entry.
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Educational content only. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.